{"id":73392,"date":"2026-02-21T11:16:33","date_gmt":"2026-02-21T11:16:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=73392"},"modified":"2026-02-21T11:16:33","modified_gmt":"2026-02-21T11:16:33","slug":"bitcoins-fair-value-faces-20-quantum-discount-and-its-only-rising-research","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=73392","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin\u2019s Fair Value Faces 20% Quantum Discount\u2014And It\u2019s Only Rising: Research"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

New research shows Bitcoin is facing a discount of about 20% due to the Quantum Computing threat, and it could rise further without an upgrade.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin Quantum Discount Could Hit 60% By 2028<\/h2>\n

Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards has published a new research piece<\/a>\u00a0on how the Quantum Computing<\/a> risk could discount the fair value of Bitcoin. Quantum Computing is an upcoming technology that could, in theory, be used to break into certain old BTC wallets<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cA quantum hack would compromise the core tenets of Bitcoin,\u201d noted Edwards. The analyst further added:<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cTrust the code\u201d<\/em>\u00a0and\u00a0\u201chard money\u201d<\/em>\u00a0value propositions would be crippled overnight as up to 30% of all Bitcoin supply (the coins with exposed public keys) are stolen and liquidated.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Currently, it\u2019s yet unknown when Quantum Computing will advance enough to be able to compromise BTC\u2019s cryptography (an event known as the \u201cQ-Day\u201d), but there has been an increasing amount of discourse surrounding the topic.<\/p>\n

Edwards, who has been a vocal voice<\/a> about the issue in the Bitcoin community, has argued that, given the Quantum threat, logical market participants must now discount the asset\u2019s fair value by a \u201cQuantum Discount Factor.\u201d<\/p>\n

The research article describes this metric as the number of years to upgrade BTC against the threat subtracted from the cumulative probability of Q-Day occurring by year. To find the probability of Q-Day taking place, Edwards has referred to estimates from various experts.<\/p>\n

Below is the compiled data of these predictions.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n

As is visible in the chart, there is a 60% chance that Q-Day could occur by 2030 and about 80% that it could happen by 2031. All of the predictions put it as happening sometime in the next nine years (2035 and before).<\/p>\n

As for how long it could take to upgrade Bitcoin, the article puts a realistic estimate at approximately two years. \u201cIn an extremely optimistic and aggressive scenario this\u00a0might<\/em> be feasible in 1 year, but is more likely to be closer to 3 years, as the below diagram elicits,\u201d said Edwards.<\/p>\n

Putting both the estimations together, the analyst has mapped out the Quantum Discount Factor for the digital asset.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n

From the graph, it\u2019s apparent that the 2026 Quantum Discount Factor sits at 20% for Bitcoin. This means that the fair value of the asset should be 20% lower today due to the Quantum risk.<\/p>\n

In the scenario that no action is taken for proofing the network against the threat, the discount will increase to nearly 40% by 2027. The figure will rise further to about 60% in 2028 and 75% in 2029.<\/p>\n

BTC Price<\/h2>\n

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $67,700, down 2% in the last seven days.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

New research shows Bitcoin is facing a discount of about 20% due to the Quantum Computing threat, and it could rise further without an upgrade. Bitcoin Quantum Discount Could Hit 60% By 2028 Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards has published a new research piece\u00a0on how the Quantum Computing risk could discount the fair value of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3,4,5],"class_list":["post-73392","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-crypto","tag-doge","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73392","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=73392"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73392\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=73392"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=73392"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=73392"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}