{"id":75846,"date":"2026-03-11T12:16:34","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T12:16:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=75846"},"modified":"2026-03-11T12:16:34","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T12:16:34","slug":"a-new-red-line-for-crypto-washington-targets-on-chain-death-bets-in-prediction-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=75846","title":{"rendered":"A New Red Line for Crypto? Washington Targets On\u2011Chain \u201cDeath Bets\u201d In Prediction Markets"},"content":{"rendered":"
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A Democratic U.S. Senator from California is introducing new legislation targeting crypto\u2011driven prediction markets<\/p>\n

An Act Against Death<\/h2>\n

On March 10,<\/a> Democrat U.S. Senator Adam Schiff (California) and Representative Mike Levin (CA-49) introduced the DEATH BETS Act<\/a>, a bill aimed explicitly at banning prediction market contracts tied to terrorism, assassination, war or an individual\u2019s death on any platform registered in the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CTFC). This includes regulated venues like Kalshi or Polymarket\u2019s newly U.S. licensed arm, plus other designated contract markets (DCM) that list event contracts via brokers.<\/p>\n

The current law, the Commodity Exchange Act, gives authority to the CFTC to bar contracts tied to terrorism, war or assassination if they are deemed to be \u201ccontrary to the public interest\u201d. Schiff\u2019s proposed bill would revoke such flexibility: the senator argues that the agency has too much discretion as it rewrites prediction\u2011market rules under Chair Mike Selig:<\/p>\n

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At a time when CFTC Chair Selig has indicated that he will rewrite the rules on prediction markets, the CFTC can no longer be granted this discretion. The DEATH BETS Act<\/em> will unequivocally ban these contracts.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

The DEATH BETS Act And The Crypto World<\/h2>\n

The proposed bill follows the Senate Democrats pressure to the CFTC to \u201chalt prediction contracts that involve betting on physical injury, death or war\u201d, as stated on a letter sent to Chair Michael Selig in February 23.<\/a> The letter specifically quotes Polymarket\u2019s on-chain \u201cdangerous prediction contracts\u201d on whether the Artemis II would explode, if Venezuela\u2019s former regime head Nicol\u00e1s Maduro would be removed from power and if Ukraine\u2019s Myrnohad would be captured by Russian forces.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Wild West\u201d<\/p>\n

In Senator Schiff\u2019s words, the prediction markets have turned into \u201cthe Wild West\u201d:<\/p>\n

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There is no justification for gambling on lives, or public benefit to be derived by such a market. With regulators turning a blind eye, prediction markets have rapidly become the Wild West.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Now, the Iran war episode takes the spotlight, as the Senator\u2019s office highlights that a bet on whether Iran\u2019s Ali Khamenei would be \u201cout as Supreme Leader\u201d had $54 million in trading volume on Kalshi before it was paused. There are hundreds of millions in Iran\u2011related bets<\/a>, with a reported 10 wallets making over $1.2\u20131.4 million in profit right before U.S. strikes.<\/p>\n

Rep. Levin stressed the importance of not letting \u201csomeone make money off the outbreak of war or the deaths of American service members\u201d.<\/p>\n

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We already saw what that looks like: over half a billion dollars was wagered on the timing of U.S. military strikes on Iran alone. That is unacceptable, and this legislation puts a stop to it.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

What The DEATH BET Act Means For Traders<\/h2>\n

Under the DEATH BET Act, CFTC\u2011supervised platforms will likely become safer but more limited, while riskier war\/death flows are pushed further into offshore or permissionless crypto venues, where legal and reputational risks spike. Bets on elections, inflation points and macro data will continue to be safe game, but Washington aims to draw the line on banally \u201cgambling\u201d with the lives of real people.<\/p>\n

The DEATH BET Act isn\u2019t a ban on crypto prediction markets, but it is a signal that the next regulatory battles in crypto won\u2019t just be over Bitcoin or ETFs: they\u2019ll be over what the industry considers acceptable to let people bet on.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin,<\/p>\n

Cover image from Perplexity, BTCUSDT chart from Tradingview<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A Democratic U.S. Senator from California is introducing new legislation targeting crypto\u2011driven prediction markets An Act Against Death On March 10, Democrat U.S. Senator Adam Schiff (California) and Representative Mike Levin (CA-49) introduced the DEATH BETS Act, a bill aimed explicitly at banning prediction market contracts tied to terrorism, assassination, war or an individual\u2019s death […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3,4,5],"class_list":["post-75846","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-crypto","tag-doge","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75846","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=75846"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75846\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=75846"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=75846"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=75846"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}