{"id":78569,"date":"2026-04-01T11:31:37","date_gmt":"2026-04-01T11:31:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=78569"},"modified":"2026-04-01T11:31:37","modified_gmt":"2026-04-01T11:31:37","slug":"crypto-market-structure-bill-now-a-long-shot-td-cowen-puts-2026-approval-at-one-third","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=78569","title":{"rendered":"Crypto Market\u2011Structure Bill Now A Long Shot \u2014 TD Cowen Puts 2026 Approval At One\u2011Third"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Due to growing political tension and ongoing talks between the banking and cryptocurrency industries, TD Cowen has drastically lowered its estimate of the likelihood that the long-awaited CLARITY Act, the proposed US crypto market-structure bill, will become law this year.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The investment bank\u2019s managing director, Jaret Seiberg, now places the probability of Senate passage and subsequent House approval at roughly one\u2011in\u2011three, a markedly more pessimistic assessment than earlier expectations.<\/p>\n

Coinbase And Banks Spar Over Stablecoin Yield\u00a0<\/h2>\n

Senators are reportedly <\/a>preparing to circulate a revised draft of the CLARITY Act as soon as this week. The bill is intended to establish a regulatory framework for digital assets, but one of its most consequential provisions would broadly prohibit platforms from providing yield \u201cdirectly or indirectly\u201d on stablecoins.<\/p>\n

That restriction has prompted strong objections from major crypto firms and complicated talks with banking interests. Coinbase\u2019s global head of investment research said <\/a>last week the industry is coordinating a counterproposal.<\/p>\n

Seiberg argues <\/a>the proposed stablecoin restriction is fraught with tradeoffs. \u201cThe problem is that this would discourage investors from using stablecoins as a way to invest excess liquidity, which is why platforms like Coinbase would object,\u201d he wrote.\u00a0<\/p>\n

From the banks\u2019 perspective, limiting stablecoin yield is also beneficial because it reduces the incentive for crypto platforms to use stablecoins for everyday payments \u2014 an outcome banks view as a threat to core deposits.<\/p>\n

Beyond stablecoin yield<\/a>, several other complex and unresolved subjects remain likely to shape final negotiations: safeguards for decentralized finance (DeFi), token classification, and rules for tokenizing real\u2011world assets (RWAs).\u00a0<\/p>\n

Those issues have proven difficult to reconcile across the political and industrial divides, and they are keeping lawmakers and industry groups locked in detailed bargaining.<\/p>\n

Senators Temper Optimism On Crypto Bill<\/h2>\n

TD Cowen\u2019s Managing Director also noted that even lawmakers who had previously expressed confidence about passage are tempering expectations.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Politico reported <\/a>that Senator Mark Warner reduced his estimate for passage to between 50% and 60%, down from earlier forecasts near 80%. \u201cThe signs are not pointing to success,\u201d Seiberg observed.<\/p>\n

Seiberg expects the most likely window for action to be in late July, arguing that the threat of the recess could force senators toward compromise. \u201cWe see the prospects as lower. To us, there is a one\u2011in\u2011three probability for the Senate to advance a version of the CLARITY Act that the House will pass,\u201d he wrote.\u00a0<\/p>\n

He added that the only plausible route to enactment, in his view, would be for Congress to push through a compromise despite objections from both Coinbase and the banking sector \u2014 a scenario he described as possible but unlikely, since Congress usually only takes that course intermittently.<\/p>\n

For now, uncertainty persists around whether the bill\u2019s language can be adjusted to satisfy both sides. A key procedural milestone to watch is the markup date<\/a> for the Senate Banking Committee, which will signal whether negotiators are ready to move from drafting to formal consideration.<\/p>\n

\"Crypto\"<\/p>\n

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Due to growing political tension and ongoing talks between the banking and cryptocurrency industries, TD Cowen has drastically lowered its estimate of the likelihood that the long-awaited CLARITY Act, the proposed US crypto market-structure bill, will become law this year.\u00a0 The investment bank\u2019s managing director, Jaret Seiberg, now places the probability of Senate passage and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3,4,5],"class_list":["post-78569","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-crypto","tag-doge","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78569","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=78569"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78569\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=78569"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=78569"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=78569"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}