{"id":81411,"date":"2026-04-16T12:46:32","date_gmt":"2026-04-16T12:46:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=81411"},"modified":"2026-04-16T12:46:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-16T12:46:32","slug":"arthur-hayes-says-btc-is-in-a-no-trade-zone-but-watch-these-3-scenarios","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=81411","title":{"rendered":"Arthur Hayes Says BTC Is In A &#8216;No-Trade Zone,&#8217; But Watch These 3 Scenarios"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p><strong>Bitcoin<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/quote\/BTC-USD\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"ticker-link\" data-ticker=\"BTC\" data-exchange=\"CRYPTO\" rel=\"noopener\">(CRYPTO: <\/a><a class=\"ticker\" href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/quote\/btc\/usd\">BTC<\/a>) sits in a \u201cno-trade zone\u201d according to BitMEX co-founder <strong>Arthur Hayes<\/strong>, who outlines three scenarios that could force the cryptocurrency out of its current range as AI-driven deflation collides with Iran war dynamics.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The No-Trade Call<\/h3>\n<p>Maelstrom did minimal trading in the first quarter apart from slowly increasing its long position in Hyperliquid, Hayes <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptohayes.substack.com\/p\/no-trade-zone\">said<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Two developments combined to produce a trading dead zone: AI agents destroying knowledge worker jobs and creating deflationary pressure, and the Iran war entering its seventh week with uncertainty around commodity flows through the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n<p>Hayes believes the quantity of money determines Bitcoin\u2019s price, not its price. Bitcoin has no cash flows, so the discount rate derived from central bank policy rates is irrelevant.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>But given Bitcoin\u2019s fixed supply, its value in fiat terms depends on the total amount of fiat in existence.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Scenario One: Back To Normal<\/h3>\n<p>The war ends immediately and the pre-war status quo returns. However, the secular trend to replace expensive knowledge workers &#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/crypto\/cryptocurrency\/26\/04\/51854950\/arthur-hayes-says-btc-is-in-a-no-trade-zone?utm_source=benzinga_taxonomy&amp;utm_medium=rss_feed_free&amp;utm_content=taxonomy_rss&amp;utm_campaign=channel\" alt=\"Arthur\" hayes says btc is in a zone but watch these scenarios>Full story available on Benzinga.com<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) sits in a \u201cno-trade zone\u201d according to BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who outlines three scenarios that could force the cryptocurrency out of its current range as AI-driven deflation collides with Iran war dynamics. The No-Trade Call Maelstrom did minimal trading in the first quarter apart from slowly increasing its long position in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3,4,5],"class_list":["post-81411","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-crypto","tag-doge","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81411","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=81411"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81411\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=81411"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=81411"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=81411"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}