{"id":85498,"date":"2026-04-24T10:31:34","date_gmt":"2026-04-24T10:31:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=85498"},"modified":"2026-04-24T10:31:34","modified_gmt":"2026-04-24T10:31:34","slug":"bitcoin-could-survive-sale-of-satoshis-coins-on-chain-expert-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=85498","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Could Survive Sale Of Satoshi\u2019s Coins, On-Chain Expert Says"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

On-chain analyst James Check has pushed back against claims that a quantum-enabled sale of Satoshi-era Bitcoin would represent an existential market shock, arguing that the likely sell-side pressure is far smaller than the headline numbers suggest.<\/p>\n

In an April 23 report<\/a> titled \u201cSelling Satoshi\u2019s Stack,\u201d Check examined the debate over whether Bitcoin should freeze quantum-vulnerable coins if a cryptographically relevant quantum computer, or CRQC, becomes viable. The discussion has intensified around older Bitcoin outputs whose public keys are exposed, including coins from Bitcoin\u2019s earliest years that many market participants associate with Satoshi Nakamoto.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin Quantum Fears Over Satoshi\u2019s Coins Overblown?<\/h2>\n

Check\u2019s central argument is not that quantum risk should be ignored. He said Bitcoiners should support \u201cthe debate, development, and preparation\u201d of credible post-quantum solutions. But he rejected the idea that vulnerable coins automatically translate into a market-ending sell event.<\/p>\n

\u201cQuantum bulls often quote the 6.9M vulnerable coins as being a sword of Damocles that threatens to kill Bitcoin should a CRQC ever come to market,\u201d Check wrote. \u201cAs with most things, there is a tonne of lost nuance, and the devil is absolutely in the details.\u201d<\/p>\n

According to the report, roughly 6.934 million BTC currently fall into categories that could be vulnerable to long-range quantum attacks because their public keys are exposed. That includes 1.716 million BTC in Satoshi-era P2PK outputs<\/a>, 214,000 BTC in Taproot addresses, and about 4.996 million BTC held in reused addresses.<\/p>\n

Check argues that the full 6.934 million BTC figure is best understood as a theoretical upper bound rather than a realistic market-risk estimate. Taproot is relatively new, he noted, meaning many owners are likely still active and able to migrate. Reused addresses, meanwhile, likely include large volumes managed by exchanges, custodians, ETFs and other entities with both the incentive and capacity to upgrade when post-quantum paths become available.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe real risk are the 1.716M Satoshi Era P2PK coins, which many liken to a sunken galleon full of gold, there for the taking if the lock can be pried open,\u201d Check wrote.<\/p>\n

Even under a severe assumption that all 1.716 million P2PK coins are stolen and sold, Check said the market impact would likely be significant but not fatal. He compared the haul against revived supply, URPD shifts, exchange deposits and trading volumes, finding that the full P2PK balance is broadly equivalent to about 60 to 90 days of sell-side activity seen in Bitcoin bull markets or late-stage bear-market capitulations.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere is no doubt that a QC attacker selling all the P2PK coins would negatively impact the price. It probably creates a bear market. However, where will, I push back strongly, is it is nowhere near the \u2018end-of-days\u2019 fatal sell-side many quantum bulls in the debate seem to claim.\u201d<\/p>\n

Check pointed to revived supply, which measures coins held for at least six months that are spent on a given day, as one lens for estimating Bitcoin\u2019s ability to absorb older supply. He said a baseline of roughly 10,000 BTC per day is typical even in bear-market conditions, while bull-market profit-taking can push revived supply above 20,000 to 30,000 BTC per day.<\/p>\n

On that basis, the sale of Satoshi-era P2PK coins would represent a large but not unprecedented demand test. Check also cited recent 90-day cost-basis turnover, arguing that more than 2.3 million BTC had moved to new buyers between $60,000 and $80,000 since the Feb. 5, 2026 sell-off, exceeding the P2PK balance by 1.36 times.<\/p>\n

The report also discusses the proposed \u201chourglass\u201d compromise in the BIP-360 debate<\/a>, under which miners could include no more than one P2PK output per block. With about 38,000 P2PK outputs, Check estimated that such a mechanism would take roughly 264 days to fully exhaust the set, roughly in line with an optimistic post-quantum migration timeline for the broader Bitcoin network.<\/p>\n

For Check, the quantum debate ultimately goes beyond market mechanics. The sell-side argument, he suggests, is weaker than often claimed; the harder question is whether Bitcoin should preserve property rights even when old coins become vulnerable, or intervene before someone else can take them.<\/p>\n

\u201cTo the folks who claim we MUST freeze the coins<\/a> because of the sell-side, I\u2019d encourage you to put some numbers to your claims,\u201d he wrote. \u201cInstead, the actual thrust of this debate is around the principles of what Bitcoin is.\u201d<\/p>\n

At press time, BTC traded at $77,869.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

On-chain analyst James Check has pushed back against claims that a quantum-enabled sale of Satoshi-era Bitcoin would represent an existential market shock, arguing that the likely sell-side pressure is far smaller than the headline numbers suggest. In an April 23 report titled \u201cSelling Satoshi\u2019s Stack,\u201d Check examined the debate over whether Bitcoin should freeze quantum-vulnerable […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3,4,5],"class_list":["post-85498","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-crypto","tag-doge","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85498","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=85498"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85498\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=85498"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=85498"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=85498"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}