{"id":88297,"date":"2026-05-01T04:04:25","date_gmt":"2026-05-01T04:04:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=88297"},"modified":"2026-05-01T04:04:25","modified_gmt":"2026-05-01T04:04:25","slug":"bitcoin-could-be-trading-below-fair-value-according-to-most-crypto-investors","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=88297","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Could Be Trading Below Fair Value, According To Most Crypto Investors"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Short-term holders have nearly stepped away from the market. Data from CryptoQuant shows that the realized cap UTXO age bands for one-week to one-month holders dropped to 3.91% \u2014 a level last seen in October 2023, when Bitcoin was changing hands near $27,000.<\/p>\n

That quiet, behind-the-scenes signal is now drawing attention from analysts who say it points to something bigger: Bitcoin<\/a> may be deeply undervalued.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin: Sentiment Has Shifted Sharply Since December<\/h2>\n

A joint survey<\/a> by Coinbase Institutional Research and Glassnode polled 91 global investors between March 16 and April 7. The group included 29 institutions and 62 non-institutional participants. What they found marks a clear break from where things stood just months ago.<\/p>\n

About 82% of institutional respondents and 70% of non-institutional respondents now classify the current market as a late bear or markdown phase. Back in December, only around one-third held that view. The shift happened fast.<\/p>\n

Valuation opinions were just as pointed. Roughly 75% of institutions and 61% of non-institutions said Bitcoin is undervalued at current prices. Very few flagged it as overpriced.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Expectations around Bitcoin dominance also changed. The share of institutions expecting dominance to climb fell from 40% to 25%. A majority \u2014 about 54% \u2014 now expect it to hold near its current level of 58.1%, while 21% think it will slide.<\/p>\n

Onchain Metrics Back The Undervaluation Argument<\/h2>\n

The survey findings don\u2019t stand alone. Onchain data tells a similar story.<\/p>\n

Analyst Woominkyu\u2019s Bitcoin Combined Market Index<\/a>, known as the BCMI, pulls together four separate metrics: MVRV, NUPL, SOPR, and investor sentiment.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

MVRV compares market value against realized value. NUPL tracks net unrealized profit and loss across all holders. SOPR measures whether coins are being sold at a gain or a loss. Together, they give a broad picture of both price and behavior.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The BCMI recently moved from 0.26 to 0.37 \u2014 a range that has historically lined up with periods of deep undervaluation. Its 90-day average is still trending lower, which signals that selling pressure hasn\u2019t fully dried up.<\/p>\n

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BTC \u2013 Is It Approaching a Relatively Undervalued Zone?<\/p>\n

\u201cAn interpretation based on historical data suggests that the market has entered a zone reasonably close to undervalued territory.\u201d \u2013 By @DanCoinvestor<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/qiAkYP5M9l<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) March 11, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

But Woominkyu said the data suggests downside is becoming limited relative to long-term upside, and that the market is entering what he called a \u201cvalue-accumulation zone.\u201d<\/p>\n

Analyst Crypto Dan made a similar observation in March. Based on the UTXO age band drop, he said Bitcoin is approaching undervalued territory, though a final bottom has not been confirmed.<\/p>\n

Historical Patterns Point Toward A Potential Cycle Low<\/p>\n

Reports indicate that whenever the one-week to one-month UTXO age band has hit levels like this since 2021, Bitcoin has typically found a cycle low within three to six months. That pattern doesn\u2019t guarantee a repeat, but it gives the current setup some historical weight.<\/p>\n

Featured image from MetaAI, chart from TradingView<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Short-term holders have nearly stepped away from the market. Data from CryptoQuant shows that the realized cap UTXO age bands for one-week to one-month holders dropped to 3.91% \u2014 a level last seen in October 2023, when Bitcoin was changing hands near $27,000. That quiet, behind-the-scenes signal is now drawing attention from analysts who say […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3,4,5],"class_list":["post-88297","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-crypto","tag-doge","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/88297","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=88297"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/88297\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=88297"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=88297"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=88297"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}